Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
